Black Friday 2025 and Cyber Week Strategy: Convert Cautious Shoppers, Effectively

Black Friday 2025 is expected to be the biggest shopping day of the year. Bain’s Cyber Five forecast confirms the massive opportunity, but a closer look reveals a major challenge: soaring growth expectations are meeting with intense consumer price sensitivity amid economic uncertainty.

Marketers are under pressure to deliver, but the old approach of just boosting ad spend won’t cut it. Rising customer acquisition costs (CAC), cautious shoppers, and fierce competition mean every dollar must work harder to drive conversions and profitable growth.

This is where a smart strategy makes the difference. We’re breaking down the essential tactics you need to implement now that will lift your conversion rate, average order value (AOV), and overall return on ad spend (ROAS) for Black Friday and Cyber Week marketing success.

Today’s Economy and Consumer Behavior

According to Adtaxi’s 2025 Consumer & Economy Survey, 68% of Americans believe the economy will turn negative within the next 6 to 12 months, with 21% expecting a mild slowdown and 20% predicting a full recession. Deloitte’s data shows 77% of shoppers expect holiday items to become more expensive.  

Knowing that, marketers need to be aware that consumers across all segments (including different income levels and generations) are planning to cut back on spending this season. There is one exception, though: Generation X. Gen Xers are expected to boost their spending by approximately 3%. 

Economic uncertainty is reshaping spending behavior. So what does that mean for you? Consumers are now carefully weighing every purchase and looking for clear value. To win them over, your brand needs to offer the right products at the right price, with messaging that makes the value obvious.

Black Friday and Cyber Week Trends

Ecommerce continues to grow year over year. This season, Cyber Week is expected to account for 17.2% of total online holiday spend—$43.7 billion, up 6.3% YoY—driven by competitive discounts across top categories. Cyber Monday remains the biggest online shopping day of the season (and the year) at an estimated $14.2 billion in spend (+6.3% YoY), while Black Friday is poised for faster growth at $11.7 billion (+8.3% YoY). Thanksgiving online spend is forecast at $6.4 billion (+4.9% YoY).

One reason for this growth is that more shoppers are choosing to buy on their phones. This holiday season, mobile devices are set to drive a record 56.1% share of all online spend, totaling an impressive $142.7 billion—an 8.5% increase from last year. Just a few years ago, back in 2020, mobile made up only 40% of online spending during the holidays.

Another key trend is the growing demand for budget flexibility, which is positioning Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) as a major driver of holiday spending. Consumers are looking for ways to manage their finances without missing out on deals, and BNPL is expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend this year—an 11% increase from last year. This payment method will be especially critical during peak shopping days, with usage projected to hit $1.04 billion on Cyber Monday (up 5%) and $761.8 million on Black Friday (up 11%). Mobile will drive 79% of BNPL spend—$15.6B, up 8.3% YoY.

Your holiday marketing success will come from leaning into mobile and flexible payment options. Focus on faster site speed, a simpler checkout, and well-placed BNPL to help more shoppers complete their purchase.

Capitalize on Holiday Shopping Trends

Knowing that there will be a trend toward using mobile devices, BNPL, and higher spending on Thanksgiving Day itself, there are some things you can do to make the most of your marketing campaigns. Try these tips to have success during Black Friday and Cyber Week:

Know your buyers and review prior results. Segment your audience and analyze last year’s sales for peak shopping windows, top stock-keeping units (SKUs), and discount response. Layer in customer feedback and competitor moves to spot gaps and opportunities. Then use analytics to power personalized offers, bundles, and timing that lift conversion rate, AOV, and ROAS.

Get your website as mobile-friendly as possible. Prioritize faster load times, responsive layouts, and a checkout that feels instant—wallet pay options, autofill, and minimal fields. Ensure key actions (add to cart, pay) are always visible and easy to tap on small screens. 

Use smart deals to drive volume and value. Getting someone to purchase from your brand this year may require a sharply discounted entry offer or accepting a slightly smaller margin than in previous years. Consumers want to stretch their money—but if you’re willing to lower prices, you can drive more sales and introduce a larger audience to your products and services.

Auto-apply discounts to reduce friction. Buyers want a discount this year because the economy is wavering. If a shopper qualifies, show the savings in-cart and at checkout—no code required. Clearly display “before/after” pricing so the value is obvious and confidence stays high.

Use free shipping to boost holiday profitability. Make free shipping a central part of your Black Friday and Cyber Monday messaging—In 2025, 66% of shoppers expect free shipping on all orders, 90% say it’s their top reason to shop online, and 58% add items to their cart just to qualify. Set a strategic purchase minimum to lift your AOV while protecting margins. Promote your offer prominently across all marketing channels, and consider pairing it with product bundles or other limited-time deals to create urgency and maximize sales.

Re-engage high-intent prospects with retargeting. Retargeting is a smart way to convert people already interested in your brand. To improve your results, group users by their actions—like viewing specific products or leaving items in their cart—and tailor your ads to fit those behaviors. Offering special discounts can boost results, and running your ads on different platforms keeps your brand top-of-mind.
As you head into Black Friday and Cyber Week, keep it simple: meet shoppers where they are (mobile), make paying easier (BNPL), and remove friction at every step. Let your data guide how you group customers, shape offers, and time campaigns, and use clear value—pricing, bundles, and free shipping thresholds—to help cautious buyers say yes. In a period of economic uncertainty, marketing success comes from clarity and ease: fast pages, a clean checkout, and smart retargeting that brings interested shoppers back. Do this well, and you’ll drive conversions now while building stronger customer relationships for the year ahead.

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